Mathematics & Statistics Colloquium - Dr James Sweeney, University of Limerick

Wednesday, November 25, 2020 - 15:00
MS Teams

Title: House price modelling in the Dublin city area: what is the impact of an address?

Speaker: Dr James Sweeney, University of Limerick

The talks will be held virtually this semester via Microsoft Teams. Link to join the meeting is given below.  All are welcome.
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Assessments of the state of play in the Dublin housing market are mainly qualitative at present, based on simple summaries of property prices. Existing property price estimators are limited in terms of the factors they use to estimate the value of a property for the purposes of property tax payment, being primarily based on the dwelling type, number of bedrooms & bathrooms, as well as a comparison to nearby houses for which sales price may be known. No uncertainty in the price prediction is typically provided, a substantial caveat given that property price predictions in areas where property turnover is low should be highly uncertain. Furthermore, a substantial issue of interest is whether there are subjective biases in terms of the prices people are willing to pay for a property - for example, will people overpay for perceived "good" addresses? Existing "hedonic" models for property prices cannot address this question as all of the factors impacting on price are not known (Gelfand et al (2014)).

In this talk I will present a proof of concept spatial model for house prices in the Dublin metropolitan area, which is applied to a dataset of 4,000 properties containing price information and a number of house features. The model appears promising for price prediction given a number of simple property features and provides some interesting results in terms of the factors deemed important in the value of a property.

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