COP22 Marrakesh: The Paris Agreement Goes Live
In what was one of the fastest ratifications of a UN accord ever, the Paris Agreement received the assent of the required number of signatories accounting for 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions and entered into force on November 4th. Almost 100 countries have now ratified and submitted their “Nationally Determined Contributions”. These outline what actions they will take from 2020 to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and/or plan for adapting to the stresses which climate change in the short and medium term will bring.
So the 22nd Conference of the Parties sees a shift in focus towards implementation – a vital necessity since the sum total of the existing pledges are completely inadequate to achieve the goal of avoiding dangerous climate change, and essentially place the planet on course for a 3degC warming over the next 80 years – a potentially catastrophic outcome. Indeed already 2016 will be testing warming levels of 1.3degC, much sooner than what some sceptics termed ‘alarmist’ climate models were predicting
It was the turn of Africa to host a COP, and Marrakesh has pulled out all the stops to make the event a success. The King has come and gone, and will return later this week. The army and air force are prominent, but the overwhelming impression is of Arab hospitality and efficiency. The venue covers an acreage probably in excess of that of the Paris meeting and contains the now familiar plethora of side events, plenary rooms and national pavilions. Most are built of chipboard and likely to be recycled quickly. Located on the outskirts of the city one can look back towards the brown haze of the traffic-choked metropolis, and in the other direction see the snow-capped Atlas Mountains.
As always the clientele at COPs can be divided into three groups. There are the ‘business suits’ of the government and semi state agencies that don’t see much daylight and negotiate behind closed doors for the most part. National self-interest seems to be the main motivating factor here, with briefs given and ‘red lines’ established before they travel. For the first week, only tentative agreements are made by them until the politicians arrive in week 2. The second group is the NGOs who try and find out what is really going on, but mostly fail, and largely talk to their own communities. Finally, there is the army of single issue vested interests who try to convince everyone that they are ready to save the planet, but often essentially are experts in ‘greenwashing’.
The big issues for this COP are firstly how to get action in advance of 2020. This requires leadership and a commitment by countries to see beyond their short term interests. For reasons that will be discussed later, the USA is not likely to be among this group. The EU equally has offered little leadership in recent years and seems paralysed by powerful sectoral interests in energy, transport and especially agriculture. It is for this writer quite sad to see the EU tread water on climate change - a subject they were instrumental in keeping alive during the dark days of the Bush presidency. The emergent climate leader here is ironically the country that was normally held up as justification for the rest of the world doing nothing, namely China. Chinese emissions have fallen, partly as a consequence of its economic downturn, but also as a consequence of a large programme of investment in renewables. China is currently fashioning a national emissions trading system to succeed a regional one and generally is switching away from coal at a time when other countries (such as Ireland) have been increasing coal consumption again
The second big issue of course is what the future holds for the Paris Agreement in the Trump era. The Chief US Climate Envoy, Jonathan Pershing, attempted to answer a battery of questions on this at a press conference today. He made three good points. Firstly, economic and market forces will not easily change the currently accelerating US move away from coal and oil to renewables. Secondly, extricating a country from the Paris Agreement could take three years or more if official channels are used. But thirdly, in response to an audience question, the possibility of linkages beyond climate introduce very complex issues, not least of which could be carbon border taxes for US goods by trading blocs such as the EU. It seems tariff walls might join other walls elsewhere!
The third big issue is of course finance, and especially the commitment to mobilise $100B annually in climate aid to enable developing countries to develop sustainably and meet their climate targets. In some ways this is ‘conscience money’ from the developed world in recognition of their historic responsibilities for causing the climate problem. To date over $40B has been raised. Some countries such as Sweden have pledged over $50 per capita. Even a country with comparable population and wealth to Ireland such as Denmark has pledged $10 per person. Ireland, with the second highest gdp per capita in the EU and one of the highest greenhouse gas emissions per capita has pledged $0.57. We await Minister Naughten’s appearance on Wednesday!
The politician’s 10 minutes of glory time starts tomorrow with the Heads of State, followed by the Prime Ministers and Ministers. It is not riveting stuff for the most part, and set piece speeches tend to make your eyes glaze over. But there are some interesting participants on the list and I intend to get in early to hear Robert Mugabe and some others that tend not to be seen much in Europe!
COP22 Marrakesh: The Last Hurrah for 2 COP Champions
It is a time of uncertainty in many parts of the world right now, but also a time when familiar faces are going to fade into the background. COP22 has seen two stalwarts make their final appearance over the past 24 hours.
Ban Ki Moon has been a key figure keeping the momentum for a climate change agreement going through some difficult times during his tenure as Secretary General. In that time he has attended each of the 10 COP meetings and worked assiduously behind the scenes, cajoling, prodding, gently persuading a changing array of politicians to face up to the greatest challenge of the 21st Century. His departure leaves a leadership vacuum at a time when those wishing to unravel his carefully assembled structures enter the political ascendancy.
Nowhere was this more poignantly shown than by the appearance of John Kerry the US Secretary of State today. His talk was largely unpublicised in advance, yet a large queue formed early outside the venue and overflow facilities accommodated a second large crowd in the US Pavilion. In what was probably the finest speech on climate this writer has experienced, Secretary Kerry spoke for almost an hour with no obvious notes or prompts. Yet he delivered a masterful talk which touched on all of the key issues expertly. It was exhilarating at times and conveyed his conviction that the progress copper-fastened by Paris was irreversible. The market forces for renewable energy in particular were now unstoppable as the fossil fuel age neared its end, he argued, and the rights and good sense of the next generation would see progress continue. But he questioned whether we today have the will to make the choices necessary to ensure his little granddaughter, whom he took to the launch of the Sustainable Development Goals, would, like other children, inherit a world not damaged by the short term decisions we are making today. He spoke of his travels in Greenland and Antarctica, of his experiences of drought and floods, and of his joy at the successful signing of the Paris Agreement and quoted President Obama, Pope Francis and Winston Churchill as leaders who stood up to be counted at crucial times. Looking around I could see a few people wiping away a tear or two as this great champion made his final COP exit.
Closer to home Mary Robinson, another stalwart of the COP, delivered a strong speech on Climate Justice where she emphasised the need to protect the most vulnerable in the developing world. A particular vulnerability affects environmental campaigners in some Central American countries where murders are presently occurring and she spoke eloquently about human rights and gender issues as being central to implementing the Paris Agreement.
Each Head of State, Head of Government or Minister responsible for climate change action was given 3 minutes to tell the world what they were or were not doing. Most talked blithely through the gongs and bells designed to cut them off after their allotted time. But then again there were some no Chair would like to argue with!
Ireland’s Minister Naughten laid out the plans for a Climate Dialogue, a mitigation and Adaptation strategy and how his efforts had succeeded in getting the Dail to ratify the Paris Agreement. He did not comment on the fact that Ireland’s emissions are increasing rapidly, rather than decreasing as our obligations require, nor of our, thus far, pathetic contribution to the Green Climate Fund. But then again, Ireland’s position is beginning to be well known in the wider world as a delinquent country when it comes to walking the walk rather than talking the talk about climate change. The reputational damage for Ireland is will sooner or later come home to roost.