Dr Gerard McCarthy of Maynooth University’s climate research unit ICARUS and the Department of Geography has been appointed as co-chair of a new initiative which aims to deliver an updated climate assessment of the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation system.
Leading scientists from nine European countries and Canada are teaming up to assess the likelihood and risks of a potential disruption to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the implications for climate, ecosystems, people and the economy.
Dr McCarthy will co-chair the project, focused on the Gulf Stream system of currents, alongside Prof Hans Otto Pörtner of the German-based Alfred Wegener Institute, which carries out polar and marine research.
Steffen Olsen, coordinator of ObsSea4Clim, welcomed the opportunity: “We are set up to deliver actionable ocean indicators for climate and assessments and the JPI project offers a unique opportunity to synthesise knowledge and address policy needs."
The AMOC plays a vital role in modulating climate, with Ireland one of the countries most impacted, distributing heat and nutrients across the Atlantic Ocean. Recent studies have raised concern that the system may be approaching a tipping point, with far-reaching implications for weather patterns, sea levels, marine ecosystems and socio-economic systems.
In a coordinated and timely response to growing societal and political interest in the AMOC, JPI Oceans and JPI Climate have joined forces to launch an expert-driven assessment of the latest science on this critical component of the climate system. It will build on findings since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 6th assessment cycle in 2021.
The project will produce a scientific assessment report, examining the current state of the AMOC, assessing projections of future weakening and the potential for collapse, and exploring associated ecological risks and human dimensions, including possible responses and solutions. It aims to address and navigate ongoing debate among researchers and provide a solid foundation for policy engagement and outreach.
The initiative has attracted strong international support and investment, with participation from Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, France, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and Ireland. Ireland is funding the project through the Marine Institute via the A4 Project (Aigéin, Aeráid, agus athrú Atlantaigh), under the Marine Research Programme, funded by the Irish Government Grant PBA/CC/18/01.